Read a signal clearly.

A rule-triggered event

A signal records that a strategy’s entry or exit conditions have been met. It is not a prediction or a calibrated probability of success. For the main daily strategy, the decision uses a completed daily candle.

The test assumes a fill at the next day’s open. A price seen later in an alert or dashboard is not a guarantee of that fill.

From entry to exit

Read the strategy version and coin first, then the entry condition and current paper position. The exit is determined by the frozen rules, not by a discretionary price target.

• Entry: a qualifying daily breakout while the Bitcoin market filter is on.
• Open position: paper exposure remains until an exit condition occurs.
• Exit: the trailing 10-day condition or the Bitcoin filter turns off.
• Outcome: evaluate the closed trade after modeled trading costs.

One trade is not the strategy

Trend following can lose on most trades and still have a positive average if its winners are sufficiently larger than its losers. A win rate alone does not tell you whether a strategy is useful.

Compare net return, drawdown, sample size, and uncertainty across the full record. Paper fills cannot reproduce every live liquidity or execution condition.