The research started with Bitcoin lead–lag at second scale, then with cost-aware delayed entries. Both were retired, and both set the standard the later work had to meet.
· 1 min read · 210 words · updated
What the record says
v001 idea: Altcoins were expected to follow Bitcoin after a short delay, at second scale.
v001 finding: Altcoins react to Bitcoin within seconds, which is far too fast for a person to act on.
v002 idea: Wait for a move, then enter only if the forecast still cleared trading costs.
v002 finding: Once real costs were counted, no tradable signals remained at all.
Lesson: A strategy that only works before costs has not worked.
Record: Both were retired rather than retuned, and the research moved to slower timeframes. Their frozen protocols are still in the repository.
Where the live record stands
This note covers a frozen or retired result, and no live engine reports on it.
How to check it
Every figure above is taken from the frozen test outputs and the live paper record.
The changelog dates every version and its result, and the strategy catalog lists the rules as they were frozen.
Positions described here are paper positions; no order is ever placed.
How this note was written
It is generated from a fixed fact sheet built from the frozen test outputs and the live paper record, then checked so that every figure in the text appears in that sheet. Fact sheet ad9ec993cdb42671.
Paper research only. Not investment advice, and not a signal. Read the commitments for what stays public and the signal log for every signal as it was published.
